number 10

This is as stacking up as the most significant election in 100 years, potentially setting the trend for the rest of our lives. Numerologically the 100 Year Centennial Cycle is very good at mapping events, showing us that history repeats but never exactly. Look to the past:

1900 – 1918: 4/5 party politics, Liberals. Tories, Labour, Irish
1910 : Hung parliament/coalition
1900 – : Emergence of a new party – Labour
1900 – : Clamour for Irish Independence, Irish Nationalist party is the third largest.
1910 – 1918: Collapse of the Liberal Party as the main opposition.

Now, in 2015 have 4/5/6 party politics, we have a coalition and the emergence of UKIP. We have a clamour for Scottish independence and the SNP may be the third largest party in May. What happened 100 years ago between Tories and Liberal is now repeating between Tories and Labour, and we may be witnessing the slow death of either of those parties.

Therefore the most likely outcome in May is an inconclusive result with the potential for a second election later in the year/early next. Whoever takes office is almost immediately going to be struck down by events. All options are on the table.

Looking further ahead it only takes a couple of moves on the chess board for any of the following scenarios to come to pass in the next decade. These are speculations but not impossible:

National ‘Unity’ Government: 2 or 3 parties coming together to govern through a crisis. The possible suspension or delay of a future election due to a crisis.
Tory/Green Coalition with Boris as Prime Minister
Collapse of the Labour Party.
Nick Clegg Prime Minister (he could lose half his support and still be kingmaker)
2nd Scottish Referendum plus general agitation produces a Scottish exit.
If UKIP have any sense (?) they will play the long game, as Sinn Fein and Co did one hundred years ago. But that depends on their stamina.

Against this background the most important thing is the character of the key players. No-one is going to get to implement their plans in full, no-one is going to be able to set a new course, all of them will govern reactively. So who has the necessary character/destiny to be able to cope? That is the issue, not party politics. More another day…